Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Recent Musings



1. When building a portfolio, you basically have two choices.
With the availability of index funds, it’s not difficult to build a portfolio. The question is, what kind of portfolio do you want to build? Or, to put it another way, what are you trying to accomplish?
Do you want to trail the market when it’s going up or when it’s going down?
You can structure your portfolio to be more aggressive than the overall stock market. That will help you when the market is going up but hurt you in down markets. Alternatively, you can structure things to be more conservative than the market, in which case you’ll trail in up markets but lose less when the market is going down. The takeaway being you can’t have it both ways.
Investment returns (in the realm of normal) are within our control. Many people worry about the stock market. It doesn’t need to be that way. If you don’t want to lose sleep worrying about the market, you don’t have to. It’s all about the asset allocation choices you make.

2. When it comes to investments, there’s no such thing as perfect.
No investment is going to be perfect, and we shouldn’t expect it to be. In traditional finance textbooks, investment decisions are presented as a tradeoff between risk and return. If you want more return, you must take more risk. But if you want less risk, you must be content with lower returns.
That is a bit over-simplistic so when evaluating investments, investors should think things through much more carefully. In addition to risk and return, consider an investment’s fees, complexity, liquidity, tax treatment and the overall level of economic certainty or uncertainty.

3. When warranted, be willing to pay more.
It’s worth paying more if you’re getting extra value. Most investors are sensitive to fees and taxes—and they should be—but this comment is a good reminder not to take this too far.
Similarly, if you own an overpriced, underperforming fund, should you hang on forever just because you would have to pay some taxes if you sold?  Of course not. Do the math and don’t be afraid of costs if you think it will pay off in the long run.

4. Don’t fall in love with an investment.
Just as there’s no perfect investment, there is no investment that you should expect to remain perfect for all time. I see this as particularly applicable to thinking about index funds—an investment that appears awfully close to perfect right now.
I believe that low-cost index and factor funds are the best way to invest—and there’s plenty of supporting data. But we should never be too comfortable. Currently, indexing works exceptionally well. But it may not work forever. Markets are dynamic. Indexing might begin to work less well or other forms of investing might begin to work better. Anything can happen, so be careful. When it comes to your investments, you don’t want to be blindsided.

CBlakely, CFP®, CTFA