Showing posts with label ETF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ETF. Show all posts

Thursday, September 5, 2013

An Interesting Summer Indeed!

I took most of this summer off. Not because I'm too busy to write or not because there was nothing of interest to write about (on the contrary). Nope, it was because I spent most of the summer rehabbing from a very complex surgery.

The condition was described to me as an aortic dissection, which occurs when a tear in the inner wall of the aorta causes blood to flow between the layers of the wall of the aorta. Aortic dissection is a medical emergency and may lead to death rather quickly even with treatment, as a result of decreased blood supply to other organs (brain), cardiac failure, and sometimes, as in my case, rupture of the aorta. My aorta tore right as I was being hooked up to life support. Lucky timing, HooWah!


Why Am I telling you this? Two reasons, first, if you have high blood pressure make sure you treat it. It's easy and inexpensive to treat hypertension. There is a reason it's called the silent killer, cause you normally feel fine right up to when you don't, and by then it may be too late. 


Next, because of technology. Without the current technology available to the Doctors in the operating room, my chance of survival was exactly zero. There was no chance. But today, with mechanical valves, Dacron™ sleeves to replace arteries, new surgical techniques, patient monitoring systems and integrated big data (yep) this second chance becomes reality for me and tens of thousands of other patients every year.


Health care accounts for one in five dollars spent in the United States. It’s 17.9 percent of the gross domestic product, up from 4 percent in 1950. And technology has been the main driver of this spending: new drugs that cost more, new tests that find more diseases to treat, new surgical implants and techniques. Much of the spending has been worth it. While the U.S. spends the most of any country by far, health care is becoming a larger part of nearly every economy. That makes sense. Better medicine is buying longer lives. 

How does this segue into investing? Well, speaking of amazing new medical devices and technology, Vanguard has low cost Health Care ETF - (ticker symbol VHT) with a solid risk reward profile. The return since inception - after taxes on distributions - is 7.08 percent. The fund was started in 2004. The passively managed fund, which has an expense ratio of 14 basis points, tracks the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of stocks in the health care sector, and holds names like Johnson & Johnson and Gilead Sciences - companies involved in providing medical or health care products, services, technology, or equipment.


Now factor in the Boomers whose first wave is already hitting the retirement years and have the money to afford procedures (elective and otherwise) and Medicare that spent $562B in 2012 and that's pretty good built in demand for medical technology and devices in my opinion.


Should everyone allocate assets to a sector fund? No, not all investors should allocate assets to this sector or any other sector for that matter. What I suggest is talking to your advisor to see if your risk profile permits any allocation and how it fits into your overall strategy. There is additional risk involved when investing in a narrow band of the stock spectrum and the potential for additional reward.


CBlakely, CFP®         09/2013





Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Two Summer Tips to Save Your Life

So you think you want to look at alternative investments for individual investors and invest like many institutions do. Well look no further than DirexionShares mutual funds. This is a fine example of the proliferation of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETF’s) – these funds are supercharged in that they give you two (2X) and three times (3X) the return on an index. Take for example, the fund with the ticker symbol GASX - it's an ETF that is 3X short natural gas stocks. In other words if the index is down 10 percent the fund should be up about 30 percent. Our predilection for doubling up to catch up in this market is being exploited by many funds – but remember, slow and steady wins the race.

The benchmark index for this fund was down just over 22 percent for the last 12 months ended March 31, 2012. Therefore, the GASX fund should be up about 66 percent, which sure helps. But alas, the fund is up 10.6 percent over the same period. Up is good, but what happened to about 56 percentage points of return?

Fund Objective
“The Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 3X ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the ISE Revere Natural Gas Index TM. There is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective.”

The answer is underlined. The fund is not beholden to its own objective. From its inception nearly two years ago, GASX is down 38.5 percent. The benchmark index is up 17 percent for the same period. If you bet against natural gas companies two years ago, you would have been right, but this ETF would have lost you close to 40 percent.

What makes this even more interesting is that its mirror image, GASL, the 3X long natural gas index ETF is down about 57 percent for the year ended March 31, 2012 (only about 10 percent away from where it should be at 3X the index). And it’s down 48 percent for the period since inception about two years ago (where it should be up around 50 percent).

What gives? This is what's known as leveraged ETF slippage.
The concept of “tracking error” or “slippage” is now front and center. ProShare Advisors, one of the top structured ETF firms just got hit with a lawsuit. From the Wall Street Journal:

A lawsuit seeking class-action status claims that ProShare Advisors and others violated a securities act by failing to disclose risks inherent in its ProShares UltraShort Real Estate fund, an inverse leveraged exchange-traded fund, including the risk of a "spectacular tracking error."

Now if you want to find alternative ways of losing money in alternative investments, try some of the other Direxion ETFs. Indian equities, long-term treasuries, semiconductors - whatever. Who said that derivatives and leverage was just for the big guys? With these sloppy funds over time you lose either way. And the higher the volatility the more you lose.

It is in fact remarkable that this is a retail product. But no worries, there is proper disclosure.
Fact sheet disclosure: - Investing in the funds may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds. The use of leverage by a fund increases the risk to the fund. The Funds are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk, consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results and intend to actively monitor and manage their investment. The Funds are not designed to track the underlying index over a longer period of time.

Well, duh!

As always, consult an accredited financial advisor before diving in, there are sharks in the water. Also, wait at least one hour after eating before going swimming.

CBlakely CFP ®, CTFA     06/2012

Sources: Sober Look, WSJ, Bloomberg, LP.