Showing posts with label equity investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label equity investing. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Is What Warren Buffett And Charlie Munger Thought In 1996 Relevant Today?

I was looking at some past Chairman’s Letters from Berkshire Hathaway (penned by Buffett and Munger) and thought you might enjoy some insightful excerpts from the 1996 letter. What was relevant for intelligent investors eighteen years ago remains so today.

On Investment Fees

   “Seriously, costs matter.  For example, equity mutual funds incur corporate expenses - largely payments to the funds' managers - that average about 100 basis points, a levy likely to cut the returns their investors earn by 10% or more over time.  Charlie and I make no promises about Berkshire's results.  We do promise you, however, that virtually all of the gains Berkshire makes will end up with shareholders.  We are here to make money with you, not off you.”

(They are talking about actively managed mutual funds and the current average expense ratio for actively managed funds is about 1.3 percent or 130 basis points. Also worth noting, only 39 percent of active managers beat their benchmarks in 2012. So for the majority of investors in actively managed funds you not only made less than the average index fund investor you paid more for the privilege.)

On Taxes

   “In 1961, President Kennedy said that we should ask not what our country can do for us, but rather ask what we can do for our country.  Last year we decided to give his suggestion a try - and who says it never hurts to ask?  We were told to mail $860 million in income taxes to the U.S. Treasury.”

     “Here's a little perspective on that figure:  If an equal amount had been paid by only 2,000 other taxpayers, the government would have had a balanced budget in 1996 without needing a dime of taxes - income or Social Security or what have you - from any other American.  Berkshire
Shareholders can truly say, ‘I gave at the office.’”

     “Charlie and I believe that large tax payments by Berkshire are entirely fitting.  The contribution we thus make to society's well-being is at most only proportional to its contribution to ours.  Berkshire prospers in America as it would nowhere else.”

(This is not relevant to this blog post but with more U.S. companies changing domicile to foreign countries to avoid paying U.S. corporate taxes – which are the highest – I found Berkshire’s perspective interesting.)

On Common Stock Investments
    
“Our portfolio shows little change:  We continue to make more money when snoring than when active.”

     “Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior.  Neither we nor most business managers would dream of feverishly trading highly-profitable subsidiaries because a small move in the Federal Reserve's discount rate was predicted or because some Wall Street pundit had reversed his views on the market.  Why, then, should we behave differently with our minority positions in wonderful businesses?  The art of investing in public companies successfully is little different from the art of successfully acquiring subsidiaries.  In each case you simply want to acquire, at a
sensible price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.  Thereafter, you need only monitor whether these qualities are being preserved.”

“Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments.  Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.”
     “Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering.  Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy.  What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected":  You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many.  You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence.  The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”

     “To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets.  You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these.  That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects.  In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.”

     “Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now.  Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock.  You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines:  If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.  Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value.”

(To summarize their thoughts on common stock investments: Buy and hold with a long-term time horizon and unless you really know how to value a business and understand market pricing, buy index funds. I might add that using the services of an accredited advisor to help you reach your future goals and manage expectations with regard to financial planning and portfolio construction may be the best idea of all.)

CBlakely, CFP®             06/2014

Source: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC., Chairman's Letter, 1996

Monday, November 4, 2013

Should Individual Investors Buy an I.P.O.?

Twitter has an initial public offering (I.P.O.) for 70 million shares coming in a couple of days and has confidently upped the price range by about 30 percent in the last week. The new price range ($23-$25) will give Twitter around $1.7 billion to finance its growth.

These high profile I.P.O.’s beg the question: Should individual investors buy into an I.P.O.?

According to research from Fidelity Investments, the number of I.P.O.’s so far this year is up 40 percent from the same point last year, and the dollar values of those offerings has increased 10 percent. Sounds like a good deal for investors on the surface, but think back to the last high profile tech I.P.O., Facebook’s I.P.O. was a disastrous stock debut.

Twitter is the type of I.P.O. that creates all kinds of media attention which might entice people to try to buy the stock without doing enough (or any) research. The more of a household name a brand is the higher the probability it will attract a greater number of investors but excitement for a brand and financial success are uncorrelated.

I.P.O.’s don’t just rise in value as they did in the late 1990’s. There are many more flameouts than winners in this market, but most people don’t remember the losers, it’s not wired into our optimistic DNA. (Which is another reason to use a professional advisor, we are like Missourians in that we tend to say, “Show me.”)

For instance, information on the company ahead of an I.P.O. is limited (although there are exceptions). And larger offerings like Twitter’s, often mean more hype, which can cloud an individual investor’s judgment. Remember, as with any investment, it comes down to the fundamentals, current financials and long-term growth prospects. Not to mention, security fit in your overall investment strategy.

Buying with the intent to quickly flip the stock at a profit is a recipe for disaster. Even Wall Street insiders admit they can’t predict the future. A better approach may be to look at what a company does and ask if it is something that will be needed in the future. As always, take the long-view with stock investments. Is the company going to around for the next ten years, if you believe so, maybe the better strategy is to find several stock companies in that industry sector and buy a basket of stocks.

Conversely, not buying the I.P.O. does not mean you should forget about the company. If an investor bought Facebook shares at their low of $18 three months after the I.P.O they have a nice gain currently. Seventeen months after the I.P.O. the stock is trading around $52 a share.

Finally, if it’s something you know about and you have an insider’s perspective on it, an I.P.O.is a way to gamble on that perspective, with maybe better odds due to the depth of your knowledge. Put another way, if you have 20 years in tech and are determined that social media has continued upside for the foreseeable future, buy that I.P.O., but remember, it’s still a bet.

CBlakely CFP®, CTFA      11/2013

Source: New York Times - Business Day, Fidelity Investments


Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Stocks are Dead; Long live Stocks!


The S&P 500 is setting multiyear highs right now. It’s the economy right? Not really, the U.S. economy grew 1.7 percent in the second quarter, creating about 140,000 jobs a month on average this year. That is less than half of the monthly hires needed to bring the unemployment rate back to pre-crisis levels by 2015. Well then, it’s due to our government averting the so-called fiscal cliff—the spending cuts and tax hikes that could stall the economy next year. Not so fasr, our government has not addressed that issue yet – hey, they still have 100 days. Europe’s financial crisis is resolved! That’s not it, Europe’s problems, while getting better, remain unresolved.

So how is it that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 25 percent over the past 12 months? Stocks have reached levels not seen since Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns existed.

Over the long term, through all the noise, stock prices actually move relative to corporate earnings. S&P 500 profits estimates (Bloomberg) suggest earnings growth of 11 percent next year, and 12 percent in 2014; this may send the S&P 500 to record levels if earnings come in at or near expected.
Corporate America is lean and mean - think of great comapnies like Apple and Wells Fargo. We are also counting on help from the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to start a third round of bond purchases to boost the economy.

With that said, the threats to the market remain (actually they never quite go away). Chief among them is the fiscal cliff. Under a law passed last year the failure of lawmakers to agree on some combination of spending cuts and tax increases would result in $1.2 trillion of automatic cuts and accompanying tax hikes in January 2013. That combination could shave 2.9 percent off economic activity in the first half of 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office. While many economists believe the impact to be good for the economy long-term, in the short-term the market would likely hiccup, frankly creating a chance to buy on the dips.

Europe also remains a potent threat, Greece has yet to ratify the spending cuts necessary to receive life saving bailout funds and there is no guarantee that Spain, which is suffering through an economic depression, will agree to more austerity in exchange for the European Central Bank’s financial aid.

Individual investors could also decide to get with the program. While prudent managers have been suggesting to add equities to portfolios where appropriate, do it yourself investors have pulled money from U.S. equity mutual funds for a fifth straight year in 2011, moving $75 billion out of stocks this year alone. If these dollars come back to stocks it could raise stock prices even further – as individual investors usually buy high.

As always, talk things over with an accreditied investment manager or financial planner to see what proportion of high-quality equities make sense for you.

CBlakely CFP®, CTFA     Sept. 2012

Sources: Bloomberg LP.