Showing posts with label intelligent investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label intelligent investing. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Is What Warren Buffett And Charlie Munger Thought In 1996 Relevant Today?

I was looking at some past Chairman’s Letters from Berkshire Hathaway (penned by Buffett and Munger) and thought you might enjoy some insightful excerpts from the 1996 letter. What was relevant for intelligent investors eighteen years ago remains so today.

On Investment Fees

   “Seriously, costs matter.  For example, equity mutual funds incur corporate expenses - largely payments to the funds' managers - that average about 100 basis points, a levy likely to cut the returns their investors earn by 10% or more over time.  Charlie and I make no promises about Berkshire's results.  We do promise you, however, that virtually all of the gains Berkshire makes will end up with shareholders.  We are here to make money with you, not off you.”

(They are talking about actively managed mutual funds and the current average expense ratio for actively managed funds is about 1.3 percent or 130 basis points. Also worth noting, only 39 percent of active managers beat their benchmarks in 2012. So for the majority of investors in actively managed funds you not only made less than the average index fund investor you paid more for the privilege.)

On Taxes

   “In 1961, President Kennedy said that we should ask not what our country can do for us, but rather ask what we can do for our country.  Last year we decided to give his suggestion a try - and who says it never hurts to ask?  We were told to mail $860 million in income taxes to the U.S. Treasury.”

     “Here's a little perspective on that figure:  If an equal amount had been paid by only 2,000 other taxpayers, the government would have had a balanced budget in 1996 without needing a dime of taxes - income or Social Security or what have you - from any other American.  Berkshire
Shareholders can truly say, ‘I gave at the office.’”

     “Charlie and I believe that large tax payments by Berkshire are entirely fitting.  The contribution we thus make to society's well-being is at most only proportional to its contribution to ours.  Berkshire prospers in America as it would nowhere else.”

(This is not relevant to this blog post but with more U.S. companies changing domicile to foreign countries to avoid paying U.S. corporate taxes – which are the highest – I found Berkshire’s perspective interesting.)

On Common Stock Investments
    
“Our portfolio shows little change:  We continue to make more money when snoring than when active.”

     “Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior.  Neither we nor most business managers would dream of feverishly trading highly-profitable subsidiaries because a small move in the Federal Reserve's discount rate was predicted or because some Wall Street pundit had reversed his views on the market.  Why, then, should we behave differently with our minority positions in wonderful businesses?  The art of investing in public companies successfully is little different from the art of successfully acquiring subsidiaries.  In each case you simply want to acquire, at a
sensible price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.  Thereafter, you need only monitor whether these qualities are being preserved.”

“Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments.  Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.”
     “Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering.  Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy.  What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected":  You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many.  You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence.  The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”

     “To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets.  You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these.  That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects.  In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.”

     “Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now.  Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock.  You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines:  If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.  Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value.”

(To summarize their thoughts on common stock investments: Buy and hold with a long-term time horizon and unless you really know how to value a business and understand market pricing, buy index funds. I might add that using the services of an accredited advisor to help you reach your future goals and manage expectations with regard to financial planning and portfolio construction may be the best idea of all.)

CBlakely, CFP®             06/2014

Source: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC., Chairman's Letter, 1996

Friday, January 25, 2013

Gamma - The New Investment Concept!


When it comes to generating retirement income, investors arguably spend the most time and effort on selecting ‘good’ investment funds/managers—the so called alpha decision—as well as the asset allocation, or beta, decision. However, alpha and beta are just two elements of a myriad of important financial planning decisions, many of which can have a far more significant impact on retirement income. Morningstar introduced a new concept called “Gamma” designed to quantify the additional expected retirement income achieved by an individual investor from making more intelligent financial planning decisions. This is a must read for planners and for investors who want to optimize their retirement assets. This is the essence of Intelligent Investing!

Read all about it here!

CBlakely  CFP®, CTFA           01-2012

Friday, February 10, 2012

Diversify Your Holdings (or not - That's Cool Too)

 Should you put all of your money in one stock or should you spread your bets across many investments? If it is the latter, how many investments should you have in your portfolio? The debate is a good one at one end is the advice that you get from the efficient markets camp: maximum diversification across asset classes, and within each asset class, across as many assets you can hold: the proverbial “market portfolio” held in proportion to its market value. At the other is the “all in” investor, who believes that if you find a significantly undervalued company, you should put all or most of your money in that company, rather than dilute your upside potential by spreading your bets.


Which Gospel? Mark or John
These arguments got media attention recently, because two high-profile investors took opposite positions. The first salvo was fired by Mark Cuban, who made his substantial fortune (estimated at $2.5 billion), as an entrepreneur. Cuban's profile has increased since, largely from his ownership of the Dallas Mavericks, last year's winners of the NBA championship. With typical understatement, Cuban claimed that diversification is for idiots and that investors, unless they have access to information or deals, should hold cash, since hedge funds have such a tremendous advantage over them. In response, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, countered that "the math (for diversification) has been proved over and over again. It's not just the first thing an investor should think about, but the second, the third and probably the fourth and the fifth thing investors should think about."

So, should you diversify? And if so, how much should you diversify? The answers to these questions depend upon two factors: First, how certain your assessment of value and second, how certain you are about the market price adjusting to that value within your specified time horizon.

At one limit, if you are absolutely certain about your assessment of value for an asset and that the market price will adjust to that value within your time horizon, you should put all of your money in that investment. Though this may seem like the impossible dream, there are two possible scenarios where it may play out:

1. Finite life securities (Options, Futures and Bonds): If you find an option trading for less than its exercise value: you should invest all of your money in buying as many options as you can and exercise those options to make a sure profit. In general, this is what falls under the umbrella of pure arbitrage and it is feasible only with finite lived assets (such as options, futures and fixed income securities), where the maturity date provides a endpoint by which time the price adjustment has to occur.
2. A perfect tip: On a more cynical note, you can make guaranteed profits if you are the recipient of inside information about an upcoming news releases, but only if there is no doubt about the price impact of the release (at least in terms of direction) and the timing of the news release. The problem, of course, is that you would be guilty of insider trading and may end up in jail.

At the other limit, if you have no idea what assets are cheap and which ones are expensive (which is the efficient market hypothesis), you should be as diversified as you can get.

Most active investors tend to fall between these two extremes. If you invest in equities, at least, it is inevitable that you have to diversify, for two reasons. The first is that you can never value an equity investment with certainty; the expected cash flows are estimates and risk adjustment is not always precise. The second is that even if your valuation is precise, there is no explicit date by which market prices have to adjust; there is no equivalent to a maturity date or an option expiration date for equities. A stock that is under or over priced can stay under or over pced for a long time.

How Diversified?
Building on the theme that diversification should be attuned to the precision of your valuations and the speed of market adjustment, the degree to which you should diversify will depend upon how your investment strategy is structured, with an emphasis on the following dimensions:

A. Uncertainty about investment value: If your investment strategy requires you to buy mature companies that trade at low price earnings ratios, you may need to hold fewer stocks , than if it requires you to buy young, growth companies (where you are more uncertain about value). In fact, as a general rule, your response to more uncertainty should be more diversification.


B. Time horizon: To the extent that the price adjustment has to happen over your time horizon, having a longer time horizon should allow you to have a less diversified portfolio. As your liquidity needs rise, thus shortening your time horizon, you will have to become more diversified in your holdings.


In summary, then, there is nothing crazy about holding just a few stocks in your portfolio, if they are mature companies and you have built in a healthy margin of safety, and/or you have the power to move markets. By the same token, it makes complete sense for other investors to spread their bets widely, if they are investing in young, growth companies, and are unclear about how and when the market price will adjust to value.


Bottom Line
Most investors are better off diversifying as much as they can, investing in mutual funds and exchange traded funds, rather than individual stocks. Many investors who choose not to diversify do so for the wrong reasons (ignorance, over confidence, inertia) and end up paying dearly for that mistake. Some investors with superior value assessment skills, disciplined investment practices and long time horizons can generate superior profits from holding smaller, relatively undiversified portfolios. Even if you believe that you are in that elite group, be careful to not fall prey to hubris, where you become over confident in your stock picking and market assessments and cut back on diversification too much.

CBlakely CFP®, CTFA 02/2012

Source: New York University Stern/Damodaran

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Viewer Discretion is Advised!

2012 seems like it could be the year prognosticators of doom and end of days theorists will be in the spotlight. Full disclosure: – I have a 2012 Mayan calendar and the kitten pictures are just too cute. But seriously, there is one prognosticator in particular that actually does scare me. Not because I think it is true, nope, that’s not even a consideration. It’s that it is loaded with exaggeration using scaremonger tactics to frighten investors into actually buying into this baloney.

Dis-infomercial

I was watching TV and saw an ad for an online video with the following warning label: “The following presentation is controversial and may be offensive to some audiences. Viewer discretion is advised.” “OK,” I said “you got my attention.” The production values are pretty high and I thought it made sense to at least skim the thing before passing judgment. So I watched this video proclaim the end of America and the dollar as we know it. Interestingly, it carried the requisite language ‘may’ and ‘likely’ added to avoid absolutes. This keeps the investment regulators at bay but makes for strange narration with phrases like – “there is absolutely no doubt that this may happen.”

What the video contains is about 45 minutes of hyperbole followed by thirty minutes of a really cheesy sales pitch for investor newsletters authored by the team at Stansberry Investment Research. Really?

Back in 2007 this group was substantially fined by the SEC for securities fraud. Now they make an end of the America as we know it pitch using scare tactics and specious charts and graphs (why are they not properly sourced or labeled?) to goad people into buying their newsletter.

While we are all entitled to our opinion a person who acts in a fiduciary capacity is held to a higher standard. Fiduciary law, putting others interests in front of your own, may be the highest law in the land. And to treat it lightly is to breach that duty. While I have read forecasts that are indeed dire, none of the pieces close by trying to sell you a way to actually make money, while the economy and the dollar and our standard of living collapse around us.

To give one example, at one point during the video Mr. Stansberry talks about something called the 100% Strategy. He claims you can make money without ever having to own a stock. OK, sure, that’s true. Then he makes the statement that you might be forced to buy a stock at less than its current value if something goes wrong with the 100% Strategy. These two positions are so obviously at odds with one another. This is one of myriad examples of how crafty yet misleading this report is.

Fool me once…….

Successful investing is difficult enough with an advisor that is working with you in your best interests, it is nearly impossible otherwise. My advice is to avoid this wolf in wolf’s clothing.

Chris Blakely, CFP® 01/2012

Friday, September 30, 2011

401(k) Investors Who Use Professional Help Outperform Those Who Don't

Investors who relied on professional help in the form of managed accounts and advice earned nearly three percentage points more than those that did not, according to an analysis of eight large defined contribution plans between 2006 and 2010 by Aon Hewitt and Financial Engines. The plans covered 400,000 participants with a total of $25 billion in assets.

The study found that in those five years, workers who received some form of professional advice experienced higher returns, averaging 2.92 percentage points, net of fees, than those individuals who managed their 401(k) on their own. According to Aon Hewitt and Financial Engines’ projections, a 45-year-old participant who invests $10,000 and receives professional help will have a portfolio valued at $71,400 at age 65, compared to $42,100 for someone who doesn’t get any help.

The study also found that 30 percent of participants were using help in 2010, up from 25 percent in 2009. It also found that younger investors with smaller balances were the most likely to use target-date funds (ouch - the most expensive and worst performing funds offered in plans - usually), and younger investors with larger balances preferred online advice. For those nearing retirement, managed accounts are the favored investment vehicle.

“This research shows the concrete value of professional retirement help during a variety of market conditions, and across age groups,” said Christopher Jones, chief investment officer at Financial Engines. “The help that employers have made available is having the desired effect of keeping participants in diversified portfolios and avoiding costly mistakes.”

The study also found that 38 percent of do it yourself participants have excessive risk levels, and 18 percent have risk levels that are too low. In contract, participants using professional help maintained more diversified allocations with appropriate risk levels, and also employed a rebalancing strategy.

“Exacerbated by continued market volatility, workers not using help are clearly making significant investment mistakes,” Jones added. “Their inefficient portfolios and skewed risk-taking is hurting results—and as the numbers show, the cost is very high.” Indeed very high! High enough to make a significant difference in how you live during your retirement.

CBlakely CFP, CTFA    09/30/11
Source: excerpted from  a recent article from Money Management Executive

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Why You Should Invest for Dividends

As a bond maven I get that coupon income dominates total return. The same is true with equities, even more so, dividends have dominated stock market returns historically and are likely to continue dominating future returns.

We buy stocks because we think they will "go up" and we can sell them for a gain. But think about it. Stocks go up presumably because the business is worth more. A business is necessarily worth more if it has large and rising distributions of cash (dividends) to company owners (stockholders). Unless you subscribe to a vast greater-fool theory - wherein someone is always willing to pay you more than you paid for a stock regardless of its "worth" - the final buyer has to be buying with the expectation of holding it in perpetuity based on its intrinsic value. If you are holding a stock with little expectation of selling it , the biggest value it generates is the cash dividend you receive from it. In the daisy chain of buyers and sellers, it mostly comes down to cash!

The point of investing in stocks may be access to cash streams in the form of a dividend, but the reality is that throughout the history of the modern markets speculation in stocks has made up a significant portion and at times the majority of market activity - this is true currently. Viewing the stock market as a casino where you can come away a winner overnight has been an all to common fallacy to many investors. Its the same logic that leads people, otherwise rational, to habitually buy lottery tickets.

The mack daddy of value investing, Benjamin Graham, devotes the entire first chapter of "The Intelligent Investor" to differentiating between investing and speculating. For him, "an investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative." Graham necessarily set the bar high,:" investment is serious business - everything else is speculation."

Dividends dominate the components of total return. Total return, in any given measurement period, is the combination of the income received in the form of a dividend plus the change in the asset value - the stock price movement - both divided by the starting asset value. Whether looking a data going back over the last 80 years or longer, about half the average annual return from from stocks (about 4.5 percent) comes directly from the dividend. The other half come from capital appreciation, a rise in the price of the stock. And what is the reason for the capital appreciation, or at least the lion's share of it? Increased dividend distributions! The market's aggregate dividend distribution has grown at a compound rate of 4.4 percent since 1926. That is, of the markets' total return of 9.7 percent since 1926, about 80 percent of it came from dividends. Basically stocks go up because dividends go up!

How do you invest for dividends? First, determine whether to do it yourself or pay a professional. A lot of basic research is available on the Internet and discount brokers provide decent research and the ability to buy and safekeep your securities at a modest cost. There are several good books you can use to educate yourself and help build a proper portfolio. With that said and only partly out of self-interest, do I earnestly recommend the latter course of action. As full-time managers of dividend focused products we have substantial human resources and technology at our disposal. This is no guaranty of making a lot of money but due to risk controls and systems put in place over the last several years the chances of losing money are low.

CBlakely  CFP, CTFA  06/2011

Sources: Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, The Intelligent Investor, Shiller database, Yale Univ. http://www.econ.yale.edu/shiller/data.htm

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Useful Mutual Fund and Annuity Facts!

A study by Dalbar, a mutual fund research firm in Boston, found that in the 20 years ended December 2010,the average stock fund investor had annualized returns of 3.8 percent, compared with 9.1 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. The average person would have been better off, much better off buying an index fund and holding it for 20 years. This again makes the case for professional management or at least index investing if you are a diy type. Why do we keep listening to Sam Waterston?

Why is it when questioned about retirement, nearly everyone prefers the certainty of guaranteed income, like a defined benefit plan, commonly referred to as a pension? But when offered the chance by buying an annuity, nearly everyone declines. Economists call this the "annuity puzzle." Using standard assumptions, economists have shown that buyers of annuities are assured more annual income for the rest of their lives, compared with those who self-manage their retirement assets. There is the term "self-manage" again. Professional advice is invaluable.
Buying an annuity can be scary, make a mistake and there is usually a large upfront penalty in the form of a surrender charge.There are psychological ramifications as well. Rather than view an annuity as insurance against living a very long life, they are viewed as a gamble, in which you have to live a certain number of years to break even. And they can be very expensive - guaranteed income for life, sounds like it should be an expensive option to me. Are they good or bad? Yes and no. It depends on your income needs and investment objectives and risk tolerance. Also, if you can, buy direct from the insurer, it's the least expensive way to purchase an annuity.

CBlakely CFP, CTFA   6/2011

sources: Dalbar, Richard Thaler - NYT

Sunday, February 27, 2011

The 14 Percent Solution

Bond Mavens United
Stock analyst Meredith Whitney grabbed headlines recently with her perilous prognostications for the U.S. Municipal bond market. Hundreds of billions in municipal defaults will plague the country over the near term is essentially what she has been saying to the media.
While I disagree with her headline grabbing prediction (as do most reasonable analysts), many purveyors of municipal debt have said the effect of this will be to move municipal rates up thereby creating a buying opportunity for tax-free income investors. It is true municipal rates have jumped over the last few months, but is this a buying opportunity? I don’t think so.
Currently, the major risk with municipal debt (corporate and government included) is not credit risk but interest rate risk. Yields have recently increased but are still deep in the pygmy range. That is what will eventually hurt you (your net worth specifically).
James Grant, a leading authority on interest rates and bond markets, along with Bill Gross from PIMCO and others have essentially been saying the same thing. Stargazers beware; a bear market in bonds is in the offing - a secular move from decreasing interest rates to an environment of sustained interest rate increases.
Central bankers have lowered the cost of money for 30 years now, following global disinflationary forces downward, but also allowing for increased leverage due to lower real interest rates. Today however, yields have less to do with disinflation and more to do with providing fuel for an asset-based economy. 10-year real interest rates fell from over 5 percent in the early 1980s to just less than 1 percent recently.
But the tide is at the turn. U.S. Government debt has experienced recent price declines (yield increases) as the European Central Bank said monetary policy has to be monitored, and if needed, corrected. China’s central bank raised reserve requirements for lenders for the second time this year to counter inflation and curb property-price gains. German producer prices are increasing at the fastest pace in more than two years.

Inflation will be a dominant theme as we look ahead, global inflationary forces will generally push rates higher around the world. A Morgan Stanley gauge of stocks such as Archer Daniels Midland Co. and Deere & Co. meant to rally when inflation expectations match Federal Reserve targets added 46 percent since August 2010, almost double the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.  While emerging-market equities beat developed countries every year in the past decade, except in 2008, you should not count on that now as Brazil, Russia, India and China battle higher food and commodity inflation.So what is one to do? Confront the risk and reward tradeoff, look hard at alternative strategies. Shorten the average maturity (duration) of your fixed income investments. Look at alternatives, such as a high quality mortgage REIT like Annaly Mortgage (NLY). This company greatly weathered the great recession, ROE looks good and using measured leverage has kept the stock in a fairly tight range, all while paying a 15 percent dividend. Buy blue chip stocks that pay higher dividends. There are options to explore that can mitigate the deleterious effects of higher interest rates and inflation.

C Blakely CFP®, CTFA 02/2011

Sources: Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, PIMCO, Bloomberg LP