Monday, November 4, 2013

Should Individual Investors Buy an I.P.O.?

Twitter has an initial public offering (I.P.O.) for 70 million shares coming in a couple of days and has confidently upped the price range by about 30 percent in the last week. The new price range ($23-$25) will give Twitter around $1.7 billion to finance its growth.

These high profile I.P.O.’s beg the question: Should individual investors buy into an I.P.O.?

According to research from Fidelity Investments, the number of I.P.O.’s so far this year is up 40 percent from the same point last year, and the dollar values of those offerings has increased 10 percent. Sounds like a good deal for investors on the surface, but think back to the last high profile tech I.P.O., Facebook’s I.P.O. was a disastrous stock debut.

Twitter is the type of I.P.O. that creates all kinds of media attention which might entice people to try to buy the stock without doing enough (or any) research. The more of a household name a brand is the higher the probability it will attract a greater number of investors but excitement for a brand and financial success are uncorrelated.

I.P.O.’s don’t just rise in value as they did in the late 1990’s. There are many more flameouts than winners in this market, but most people don’t remember the losers, it’s not wired into our optimistic DNA. (Which is another reason to use a professional advisor, we are like Missourians in that we tend to say, “Show me.”)

For instance, information on the company ahead of an I.P.O. is limited (although there are exceptions). And larger offerings like Twitter’s, often mean more hype, which can cloud an individual investor’s judgment. Remember, as with any investment, it comes down to the fundamentals, current financials and long-term growth prospects. Not to mention, security fit in your overall investment strategy.

Buying with the intent to quickly flip the stock at a profit is a recipe for disaster. Even Wall Street insiders admit they can’t predict the future. A better approach may be to look at what a company does and ask if it is something that will be needed in the future. As always, take the long-view with stock investments. Is the company going to around for the next ten years, if you believe so, maybe the better strategy is to find several stock companies in that industry sector and buy a basket of stocks.

Conversely, not buying the I.P.O. does not mean you should forget about the company. If an investor bought Facebook shares at their low of $18 three months after the I.P.O they have a nice gain currently. Seventeen months after the I.P.O. the stock is trading around $52 a share.

Finally, if it’s something you know about and you have an insider’s perspective on it, an I.P.O.is a way to gamble on that perspective, with maybe better odds due to the depth of your knowledge. Put another way, if you have 20 years in tech and are determined that social media has continued upside for the foreseeable future, buy that I.P.O., but remember, it’s still a bet.

CBlakely CFP®, CTFA      11/2013

Source: New York Times - Business Day, Fidelity Investments


Thursday, September 5, 2013

An Interesting Summer Indeed!

I took most of this summer off. Not because I'm too busy to write or not because there was nothing of interest to write about (on the contrary). Nope, it was because I spent most of the summer rehabbing from a very complex surgery.

The condition was described to me as an aortic dissection, which occurs when a tear in the inner wall of the aorta causes blood to flow between the layers of the wall of the aorta. Aortic dissection is a medical emergency and may lead to death rather quickly even with treatment, as a result of decreased blood supply to other organs (brain), cardiac failure, and sometimes, as in my case, rupture of the aorta. My aorta tore right as I was being hooked up to life support. Lucky timing, HooWah!


Why Am I telling you this? Two reasons, first, if you have high blood pressure make sure you treat it. It's easy and inexpensive to treat hypertension. There is a reason it's called the silent killer, cause you normally feel fine right up to when you don't, and by then it may be too late. 


Next, because of technology. Without the current technology available to the Doctors in the operating room, my chance of survival was exactly zero. There was no chance. But today, with mechanical valves, Dacron™ sleeves to replace arteries, new surgical techniques, patient monitoring systems and integrated big data (yep) this second chance becomes reality for me and tens of thousands of other patients every year.


Health care accounts for one in five dollars spent in the United States. It’s 17.9 percent of the gross domestic product, up from 4 percent in 1950. And technology has been the main driver of this spending: new drugs that cost more, new tests that find more diseases to treat, new surgical implants and techniques. Much of the spending has been worth it. While the U.S. spends the most of any country by far, health care is becoming a larger part of nearly every economy. That makes sense. Better medicine is buying longer lives. 

How does this segue into investing? Well, speaking of amazing new medical devices and technology, Vanguard has low cost Health Care ETF - (ticker symbol VHT) with a solid risk reward profile. The return since inception - after taxes on distributions - is 7.08 percent. The fund was started in 2004. The passively managed fund, which has an expense ratio of 14 basis points, tracks the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of stocks in the health care sector, and holds names like Johnson & Johnson and Gilead Sciences - companies involved in providing medical or health care products, services, technology, or equipment.


Now factor in the Boomers whose first wave is already hitting the retirement years and have the money to afford procedures (elective and otherwise) and Medicare that spent $562B in 2012 and that's pretty good built in demand for medical technology and devices in my opinion.


Should everyone allocate assets to a sector fund? No, not all investors should allocate assets to this sector or any other sector for that matter. What I suggest is talking to your advisor to see if your risk profile permits any allocation and how it fits into your overall strategy. There is additional risk involved when investing in a narrow band of the stock spectrum and the potential for additional reward.


CBlakely, CFP®         09/2013





Monday, May 6, 2013

Investment Management Fees Are (Much) Higher Than You Think


I saw this is piece in a recent edition of Financial Analysts Journal, occasionally they publish a guest editorial, this one, by Charles D. Ellis, CFA is a must read if you are paying a firm to actively manage your investments. The editorial in its entirety is below.


Although some critics grouse about them, most investors have long thought that investment management fees can best be described in one word: low. Indeed, fees are seen as so low that they are almost inconsequential when choosing an investment manager. This view, however, is a delusion. Seen for what they really are, fees for active management are high—much higher than even the critics have recognized.

When stated as a percentage of assets, average fees do look low—a little over 1% of assets for individuals and a little less than one-half of 1% for institutional investors. But the investors already own those assets, so investment management fees should really be based on what investors are getting in the returns that managers produce. Calculated correctly, as a percentage of returns, fees no longer look low. Do the math. If returns average, say, 8% a year, then those same fees are not 1% or one-half of 1%. They are much higher—typically over 12% for individuals and 6% for institutions.

But even this recalculation substantially understates the real cost of active “beat the market” investment management. Here’s why: Index funds reliably produce a “commodity product” that ensures the market rate of return with no more than market risk. Index funds are now available at fees that are very small: 5 bps (0.05%) or less for institutions and 20 bps or less for individuals. Therefore, investors should consider fees charged by active managers not as a percentage of total returns but as incremental fees versus risk-adjusted incremental returns above the market index.

Thus (correctly) stated, management fees for active management are remarkably high. Incremental fees are somewhere between 50% of incremental returns and, because a majority of active managers fall short of their chosen benchmarks, infinity. And when market returns are low, as in recent years, management fees eat up even more of an investor’s return. Are any other services of any kind priced at such a high proportion of client-delivered value? Can active investment managers continue to thrive on the assumption that clients won’t figure out the reality that, compared with the readily available passive alternative, fees for active management are astonishingly high?

Fees for active management have a long and interesting history. Once upon a time, investment management was considered a “loss leader.” When pension funds first mushroomed as “fringe benefits” during the post–World War II wage-and-price freeze, most major banks agreed to manage pension fund assets as a “customer accommodation” for little or no money—that is, no explicit fee. With fixed-rate brokerage commissions, the banks exchanged commissions for cash balances in agreed proportions. The brokers got “reciprocal” commission business, and the banks got “free” balances they could lend out at prevailing interest rates. In the 1960s, a few institutional brokerage firms, including DLJ, Mitchell Hutchins, and Baker Weeks, had investment management units that charged full fees (usually 1%) but then offset those nominal fees entirely with brokerage commissions.

When the Morgan Bank took the lead in charging fees by announcing institutional fees of one quarter of 1% in the late 1960s, conventional Wall Street wisdom held that the move would cost the bank a ton of business. Actually, it lost only one account. Thus began nearly a half century of persistent fee increases, facilitated by client perceptions that fees were comfortably exceeded by incremental returns—if the right manager was chosen. Even today, despite extensive evidence to the contrary, both individual and institutional investors typically expect their chosen managers to produce significantly higher-than-market returns. That’s why fees have seemed “low.”

A relatively minor anomaly is getting more attention: While asset-based fees have increased substantially over the past 50 years—more than fourfold for both institutional and individual investors—investment results have not improved for many reasons. Changes in the equity market have been substantial, particularly in aggregate. Over the past 50 years, trading volume has increased 2,000 times—from 2 million shares a day to 4 billion—while derivatives, in value traded, have gone from zero to far more than the “cash” market. Institutional activity on the stock exchanges has gone from under 10% of trading to over 90%. And a wide array of game changers — Bloomberg, CFA charterholders, computer models, globalization, hedge funds, high-frequency trading, the internet, and so on—have become major factors in the market.

Most important, the worldwide increase in the number of highly trained professionals, all working intensely to achieve any competitive advantage, has been phenomenal. Consequently, today’s stock market is an aggregation of all the expert estimates of price-to-value coming every day from extraordinary numbers of hardworking, independent, experienced, well-informed, professional decision makers. The result is the world’s largest ever “prediction market.” Against this consensus of experts, managers of diversified portfolios of publicly traded securities who strive to beat the market are sorely challenged.

If the upward trend of fees and the downward trend of prospects for beat-the-market performance wave a warning flag for investors—as they certainly should—objective reality should cause all investors who believe investment management fees are low to reconsider.ⁱ  Seen from the right perspective, active management fees are not low— they are high, very high.

Extensive, undeniable data show that identifying in advance any one particular investment manager who will—after costs, taxes, and fees—achieve the holy grail of beating the market is highly improbable. Yes, Virginia, some managers will always beat the market, but we have no reliable way of determining in advance which managers will be the lucky ones.

Price is surely not everything, but just as surely, when analyzed as incremental fees for incremental returns, investment management fees are not “almost nothing.” No wonder increasing numbers of individual and institutional investors are turning to exchange-traded funds and index funds—and those experienced with either or both are steadily increasing their use of them.

Meanwhile, those hardworking and happy souls immersed in the fascinating complexities of active investment management might well wonder, Are we and our industry-wide compensation in a global bubble of our own creation? Does a specter of declining fees haunt our industry’s future? I believe it does, particularly for those who serve individual and institutional investors and continue to define their mission as beat-the-market performance.

Notes
ⁱ. The announcement in February by the U.S. Labor Department that it will require more disclosure of fees to 401(k) sponsors and participants may help some investors do so.

CBlakely, CFP®         05/2013

Monday, March 4, 2013

Federal Debt Limit Explained

Not really much of a blog post, but something you may find useful. Click on the link below to view a funny bit that explains the Federal Debt Limit in a context we can all understand. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li0no7O9zmE

CBlakely, CFP®                       03/2013

Friday, February 8, 2013

Keep Taxes Low to Maximize Returns - Here's How


Portfolio research has examined the long-term impact of expenses and taxes on investment returns and concluded that, while asset allocation remains the most important factor affecting variability of returns, keeping costs and taxes low is an important factor for investors who are trying to maximize return.
Because mutual funds may distribute capital gains throughout the year, mutual fund investors are often concerned about losing investment returns to taxes. But individual stock and bond investors are vulnerable to taxes as well, depending on how they manage their investments.
Return lost to taxes sucks, but the good news is you can exercise a good deal of control here. Think about this: diversification and asset allocation are great tools for helping to reduce portfolio volatility and variability, but we're still going to be subjected to the short-term moves of the market, no matter how diligent we might be in setting up our portfolio and selecting our investments. Where we have the greatest degree of control is the area of expenses and tax-efficient implementation. Doesn't it make sense that where we can exercise the most control, we should?
Below is a table that displays where investors who want to minimize taxes may want to place their investments.


Taxable accounts
Tax-deferred accounts such as traditional IRAs, 401(k)s and deferred annuities
Here, you'd ideally place...
Here, you'd ideally place...
Individual stocks you plan to hold more than one year
Individual stocks you plan to hold one year or less
Tax-managed stock funds, index funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), low-turnover stock funds
Actively managed funds that may generate significant short-term capital gains
Stocks or mutual funds that pay qualified dividends
Taxable bond funds, zero-coupon bonds, inflation-protected bonds or high-yield bond funds
Municipal bonds, I Bonds (savings bonds)
Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
Private equity, partnerships (IRA only)

Also to keep fees as low as possible research index funds and index ETF's and use fee only advisors!

CBlakely CFP®, CTFA                      02/2013
Source: Schwab Insights

Friday, January 25, 2013

Gamma - The New Investment Concept!


When it comes to generating retirement income, investors arguably spend the most time and effort on selecting ‘good’ investment funds/managers—the so called alpha decision—as well as the asset allocation, or beta, decision. However, alpha and beta are just two elements of a myriad of important financial planning decisions, many of which can have a far more significant impact on retirement income. Morningstar introduced a new concept called “Gamma” designed to quantify the additional expected retirement income achieved by an individual investor from making more intelligent financial planning decisions. This is a must read for planners and for investors who want to optimize their retirement assets. This is the essence of Intelligent Investing!

Read all about it here!

CBlakely  CFP®, CTFA           01-2012

Monday, January 21, 2013

Four Key Benefits of Data Integration for Investment Advisory Firms

Investment professionals, like so many of us, often find it difficult to tell the difference between ‘information' and 'data'.  However, the business impact of new data sources available to the financial services industry make it imperative to understand the difference between these terms. Information, such as client reports, portfolio metrics, and dynamic portfolio recommendations, is the primary product produced by most advisory firms. Further, data, including market, client, and economic, is the raw material used to produce it. Therefore, data is one of the most important resources owned or used by an investment advisory firm.
The level of data integration employed by a firm is a good measure of the efficiency with which a firm produces their service. It may also be a good indicator of an advisory firm's client service, specifically the quality. This makes the level of data integration an important indicator of a firm's current and future health and profitability.
Unfortunately, merely mentioning the words data or integration is often enough to make many financial advisor professionals abruptly refer you to the nearest available IT employee. I am, of course, exaggerating to make a point, which is: investment advisory professionals should pay close attention to discussions of data and integration. Outlined below are four key reasons data integration deserves attention in financial services:

1. Increased New Business Opportunities

More often the competition for new business is won by firms able to create information that serves client needs as understood from a complete 360° view of a client. Since the competition among firms for assets is a zero-sum game, information provided to clients based upon a complete and accurate view of their needs not only win the day for the advisory service but also positively impacts client retention rates. Firms that have efficient data integration capabilities will be able create and provide a better information service to their customers. That is, they will be able to offer timely, high-quality information that is uniquely tailored to the needs of their current and prospective clients. To generate this information, these firms will need to efficiently integrate data from a large number of heterogeneous sources. These include internal operational data, third-party data, and newer data sources such as social media
.
2. Increased Efficiency and Decreased Costs

There are two primary service delivery approaches implemented by investment advisory firms: best-of-breed and end-to-end. Each of these approaches creates unique integration complexities that increase costs - including data duplication, required customization, and process inefficiency.
Data is a perishable commodity - it’s a raw material that possesses a limited shelf life. Therefore, rapid and efficient access to timely data reduces waste. Over time, the logistics of internal data integration have been made more complex due to data duplication arising from siloed best-of-breed applications or inflexible end-to-end solutions. The best-of-breed and end-to-end solution approaches have made internal data integration more difficult and complex. The additions of external data sources, such as social media, add a new layer of complexity on top of this. Therefore, front, middle, and back-office technology don’t easily translate into increased efficiency. More efficient use of existing technology primarily means more efficient data integration.
Data integration remains a complex process, so a “light weight,” low cost, and efficient data integration solution managed with proper skill and expertise are needed to overcome this complexity. Such a solution, implemented as an overlay on existing technology, will greatly decrease costs.

3. Decreased Risk Exposure

Data integration efficiency directly impacts a firm’s risk exposure. Complex integration, outdated data, and poor data quality lead to the production of inconsistent, outdated, or inaccurate information – garbage in, garbage out. This greatly increases risk exposure.
Decreasing risk exposure requires timely and accurate data to be delivered both internally and externally. This enables informed decisions on the part of everyone involved in the delivery process. It also insures that processes are consistent, which results in compliant information provided to clients and regulators.

4. Increased Product Quality

Investment advisory firms’ primary product is information, and the quality of that product is directly impacted by the value and relevance of the underlying data.
Increased product quality requires advisory firms to have timely and efficient access to the most up-to-date and accurate data. In addition, product quality is increasingly defined by how well information provided to clients reflects their unique personal circumstances. This requires integration of data that is unique and customer centric. Data integration flexibility, therefore, is becoming extremely important
Data integration has a profound impact upon the quality of product produced by investment advisory firms. Moreover, product quality will increasingly be measured by how well a firm delivers information that is tailored to unique client needs. As clients begin to expect information tailored directly to their needs (think Amazon), efficient, high value data integration services will become more of a business critical function for investment firms.

CBlakely               01-2013